Estimation Techniques for Agile Software Development

Rafael A. George Duval
3 min readOct 26, 2023

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Instead of estimating, starting with a budget for operational costs and time for a significant work project is recommended. This budget can serve as a design constraint for the delivery team, such as scalability or performance. Instead of asking, “How long will it take?” it’s better to ask, “When do you need this?” and “How much can you afford to pay for it?” This way, the delivery team can create a solution that fits these constraints. Most businesses need help to develop an accurate financial estimate of the value of a project. So, it’s better to ask about extremes, such as “What is the least amount of money this project needs to earn to make a reasonable impact? How much would make everyone say that this was worth it?”

Story sizing is a common cause of heated debates in online forums and can be a stumbling block for inexperienced teams. All these estimates are then added to predict when the larger piece of work will finally be delivered. Assessments should be as accurate as possible but only as precise as necessary to keep the estimation cost low.

Don’t Underestimate. Even if you’ve worked on the same task in the past, nuances are always involved in each study. Separating large tasks into smaller ones improves the accuracy of estimates. Decompose estimates into tasks requiring at most two days of effort. Estimate in ranges: worst case, most likely case, best case for a task. Document and communicate the assumptions embedded in your assessment. The best estimation techniques for small projects tend to be “bottom-up” based on estimates created by people who will do the work. Next time someone asks for an estimate, grab a Post-it and take note of your answer. When you are ready to begin the task, start a clock and see how long it takes to complete. Once the task is done, note how many hours it took. Repeat the same thing for the next task. Group estimation is used in Agile software development to estimate the effort. The goal is to arrive at a consensus estimate based on the group’s collective knowledge and experience.

Relative estimation: this strategy compares items. It is more accessible than trying to estimate their total size. The team will assign a comparable size to each item, such as small, medium, or large, and then use that information to focus on the backlog. This allows for easy comparison and consensus-building. Three-point estimation involves estimating each item’s required Low, Medium, and High effort. This helps in providing a rough estimate of the necessary action and helps in planning further.

The Delphi method is used when the team members are present at different places. Each team member will give their estimate in this method, and then the calculations are collected and discussed to reach a consensus.

[¹]: Fifty Quick Ideas To Improve Your User Stories

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Rafael A. George Duval
Rafael A. George Duval

Written by Rafael A. George Duval

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